A lab open-weights a frontier model in 2026?

Market trust

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Trust score: In review
Source type: Manual
Provider health: Manual Review
Criteria quality: Warn
Market data quality: Review
Public evidence state: Not Ready
Chart data provenance: Drazill Market Data
Price history freshness: Fresh
Last source check: Not checked yet

Trust methodology

Formula: market-trust-v1.0

Window: Latest market, criteria, provider, and evidence records

Confidence: MEDIUM

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About This Market

Predicts an open-weight frontier release from a leading lab. Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, or xAI publicly releases open weights of a near-frontier model in 2026. Source: lab announcements.

Source

Official announcement or authoritative source

Market open

Jun 8, 2026, 03:26 p.m.

Market closes

Jan 8, 2027, 02:26 p.m.

Projected payout

After market closes

A lab open-weights a frontier model in 2026?

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