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Volume
$712.8K
Traders
1,307
Closes
3mo
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Sept?
Yes
5
4
¢
No
4
6
¢
All-time Price History
Trade
Japan passes record 2026 defense budget?
When does the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Sept?
5
4
¢
4
6
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$713K
3mo
-19.1%
Spd
4¢
When does the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
July to September 2026
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
October to December 2026
2
9
¢
Yes
29¢
No
71¢
Not in 2026
2
3
¢
Yes
23¢
No
77¢
By end of June 2026
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
$607K
6mo
Japan passes record 2026 defense budget?
8
2
¢
1
8
¢
Yes
82¢
No
18¢
$496K
3mo
+25.1%
Spd
4¢
Global oil supply disrupted through July?
6
1
¢
3
9
¢
Yes
61¢
No
39¢
$444K
1mo
-16.7%
Spd
4¢
China invades or blockades Taiwan in 2026?
5
¢
9
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
$321K
6mo
+15.7%
Spd
4¢
Which conflict gets a 2026 ceasefire first?
Neither in 2026
3
7
¢
Yes
37¢
No
63¢
Us Iran First
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Russia Ukraine First
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$251K
6mo
First woman UN Secretary-General?
4
6
¢
5
4
¢
Yes
46¢
No
54¢
$230K
6mo
+1.2%
Spd
4¢
Next UN Secretary-General?
Rafael Grossi (Argentina)
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica)
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Michelle Bachelet (Chile)
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
Macky Sall (Senegal)
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Someone else
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Maria F. Espinosa (Ecuador)
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$175K
6mo
Zelensky-Putin meeting in 2026?
2
0
¢
8
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$183K
6mo
+19.7%
Spd
4¢
US-China trade deal signed by Sept?
3
0
¢
7
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$178K
3mo
-1.8%
Spd
4¢
China blockades Taiwan in 2026?
1
1
¢
8
9
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$178K
6mo
-1.4%
Spd
4¢
Maduro still leads Venezuela end of 2026?
Still in power
7
8
¢
Yes
78¢
No
22¢
Out via deal/exile
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
Out via election/transition
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
Out another way
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
$157K
6mo
China's full-year 2026 GDP growth?
5.0% To 5.4%
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
4.5% To 4.9%
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Below 4.5%
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
5.5% Or Higher
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$155K
7mo
Next Trump-Putin summit?
Not in 2026
5
2
¢
Yes
52¢
No
48¢
By Sept 30, 2026
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Oct Dec 2026
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$140K
6mo
Philippines x China clash at sea by Sept?
6
8
¢
3
2
¢
Yes
68¢
No
32¢
$149K
3mo
+0.8%
Spd
4¢
Brent crude 2026 peak?
Us$95-105
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
Us$105-120
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Under US$95
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Above US$120
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$131K
6mo
Russia-Ukraine major POW swap by Sept?
6
0
¢
4
0
¢
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$145K
3mo
+4.3%
Spd
4¢
RBA cash rate cut by Sept?
4
9
¢
5
1
¢
Yes
49¢
No
51¢
$134K
3mo
+21.0%
Spd
4¢
PLA aircraft cross Taiwan's median line by Sept?
500 To 1,500
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
1,500 To 3,000
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
Under 500
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Over 3,000
1
3
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
$115K
3mo
A G20 leader loses power before 2027?
8
1
¢
1
9
¢
Yes
81¢
No
19¢
$130K
6mo
-12.5%
Spd
4¢
New BRICS members in 2026?
None
4
7
¢
Yes
47¢
No
53¢
Exactly 1
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
2 Or More
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$111K
6mo
UN Security Council Iran-war resolution?
2
8
¢
7
2
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
$118K
3mo
-27.0%
Spd
4¢
Ukraine-Russia ceasefire before 2027?
3
3
¢
6
7
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
$101K
6mo
+3.5%
Spd
4¢
North Korea nuclear test in 2026?
1
7
¢
8
3
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
$95K
6mo
-1.6%
Biggest Asia-Pacific risk in H2 2026?
Taiwan Strait tensions
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
Iran War Oil Spillover To Asia
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Korean peninsula escalation
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
South China Sea clash
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
Something else
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$75K
6mo
Any country joins NATO in 2026?
1
1
¢
8
9
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$61K
6mo
+24.3%
US-Iran ceasefire before Aug 2026?
4
4
¢
5
6
¢
Yes
44¢
No
56¢
$61K
1mo
-7.1%
India's 2026 GDP growth tops 6.5%?
5
9
¢
4
1
¢
Yes
59¢
No
41¢
$57K
9mo
-12.0%
NATO adopts a 5% defence pledge?
6
1
¢
3
9
¢
Yes
61¢
No
39¢
$51K
2mo
-14.0%
Takaichi remains Japan's PM through 2026?
8
8
¢
1
2
¢
Yes
88¢
No
12¢
$50K
6mo
-4.9%
New Taiwan arms package in 2026?
7
4
¢
2
6
¢
Yes
74¢
No
26¢
$49K
6mo
-0.9%
Lee Jae-myung stays president all 2026?
9
0
¢
1
0
¢
Yes
90¢
No
10¢
$48K
6mo
+17.3%
Japan revises Article 9 in 2026?
1
5
¢
8
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
$46K
6mo
+10.9%
