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Volume
$712.8K
Traders
1,307
Closes
3mo
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Sept?
Yes
5
4
¢
No
4
6
¢
All-time Price History
Trade
Government shutdown before October?
Who wins the next UK general election?
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Sept?
5
4
¢
4
6
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$713K
3mo
-19.1%
Spd
4¢
Who wins the next UK general election?
Reform UK
4
4
¢
Yes
44¢
No
56¢
Labour
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
Conservatives
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Hung parliament / other
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Liberal Democrats
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
$680K
19mo
Government shutdown before October?
6
5
¢
3
5
¢
Yes
65¢
No
35¢
$637K
2mo
-29.8%
Spd
4¢
New Canada-US CUSMA/trade deal in 2026?
4
8
¢
5
2
¢
Yes
48¢
No
52¢
$578K
6mo
+18.9%
Spd
4¢
Europe's biggest 2026 political shake-up?
France govt collapse
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Hungary transition (Tisza)
2
5
¢
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
German coalition crisis
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
Other country
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
No major change
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$537K
6mo
Macron French president through 2026?
8
3
¢
1
7
¢
Yes
83¢
No
17¢
$531K
6mo
+3.4%
Spd
4¢
Republicans hold the Senate in 2026?
5
0
¢
5
0
¢
Yes
50¢
No
50¢
$519K
5mo
+2.4%
Spd
4¢
Top issue in the 2026 midterms?
Something else
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
The Iran war / foreign policy
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Healthcare
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
Economy / inflation
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Immigration
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
$486K
3mo
How many BoE rate cuts by end of 2026?
One cut
3
6
¢
Yes
36¢
No
64¢
No cuts
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
Two cuts
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Three or more
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$476K
6mo
Starmer UK PM on Aug 31, 2026?
4
2
¢
5
8
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
$451K
2mo
+3.9%
Spd
4¢
Global oil supply disrupted through July?
6
1
¢
3
9
¢
Yes
61¢
No
39¢
$444K
1mo
-16.7%
Spd
4¢
Federal voting-intention leader at end of 2026?
Liberal Party
6
2
¢
Yes
62¢
No
38¢
Conservative Party
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
Ndp
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Bloc Quebecois
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Other
1
¢
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$425K
6mo
Merz German Chancellor through 2026?
8
2
¢
1
8
¢
Yes
82¢
No
18¢
$439K
6mo
+1.8%
Spd
4¢
Who leads France's next national poll?
Rassemblement National
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
Left bloc (NFP)
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Macron's centrists
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Les Republicains
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
Other
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$345K
1mo
Poilievre Conservative leader on Jan 1, 2027?
8
4
¢
1
6
¢
Yes
84¢
No
16¢
$343K
6mo
-17.8%
Spd
4¢
Carney survives a 2026 confidence vote?
8
3
¢
1
7
¢
Yes
83¢
No
17¢
$300K
6mo
-0.3%
Spd
4¢
Carney still PM at end of 2026?
8
5
¢
1
5
¢
Yes
85¢
No
15¢
$267K
6mo
+19.8%
Spd
4¢
Canada hits 2% of GDP on NATO defence in 2026?
5
4
¢
4
6
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$267K
6mo
+5.3%
Spd
4¢
Which conflict gets a 2026 ceasefire first?
Neither in 2026
3
7
¢
Yes
37¢
No
63¢
Us Iran First
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Russia Ukraine First
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$251K
6mo
UK PM at the end of 2026?
Keir Starmer
4
2
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
Andy Burnham
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Another Labour figure
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Wes Streeting
1
3
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Someone outside Labour
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$230K
6mo
First woman UN Secretary-General?
4
6
¢
5
4
¢
Yes
46¢
No
54¢
$230K
6mo
+1.2%
Spd
4¢
Next UN Secretary-General?
Rafael Grossi (Argentina)
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica)
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Michelle Bachelet (Chile)
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
Macky Sall (Senegal)
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Someone else
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Maria F. Espinosa (Ecuador)
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$175K
6mo
New Trump impeachment vote in 2026?
1
3
¢
8
7
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
$186K
6mo
+3.3%
Spd
4¢
Scotland sets an independence vote date?
1
1
¢
8
9
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$185K
6mo
-0.7%
Spd
4¢
Next Conservative leader if Poilievre exits?
Poilievre stays (None)
7
0
¢
Yes
70¢
No
30¢
Someone else
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Melissa Lantsman
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Andrew Scheer
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
Tim Hodgson
4
¢
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
$168K
11mo
Zelensky-Putin meeting in 2026?
2
0
¢
8
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$183K
6mo
+19.7%
Spd
4¢
2026 generic ballot on Election Day?
D+4 to D+8
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
D+8 or more
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
D+0 to D+4
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
R Leaning (r+0 Or More)
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
$168K
5mo
China blockades Taiwan in 2026?
1
1
¢
8
9
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$178K
6mo
-1.4%
Spd
4¢
Maduro still leads Venezuela end of 2026?
Still in power
7
8
¢
Yes
78¢
No
22¢
Out via deal/exile
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
Out via election/transition
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
Out another way
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
$157K
6mo
AfD leads a German poll in 2026?
6
3
¢
3
7
¢
Yes
63¢
No
37¢
$172K
6mo
-17.6%
Spd
4¢
Tusk government survives through 2026?
6
7
¢
3
3
¢
Yes
67¢
No
33¢
$169K
6mo
-7.1%
Spd
4¢
EU adopts 2040 climate law in 2026?
5
5
¢
4
5
¢
Yes
55¢
No
45¢
$165K
6mo
+12.7%
Spd
4¢
Democrats' net Senate seats in 2026?
Dems gain 1 to 2
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Dems lose 1+
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
No net change
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Dems gain 3+
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
$147K
5mo
Liberals keep a working majority through 2026?
6
6
¢
3
4
¢
Yes
66¢
No
34¢
$160K
6mo
+12.3%
Spd
4¢
Congress control after the midterms?
Dem House, GOP Senate
4
2
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
GOP House and Senate
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Dem House and Senate
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
GOP House, Dem Senate
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$144K
5mo
Trump net approval above -10 by Labor Day?
2
1
¢
7
9
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
$156K
3mo
+4.3%
Spd
4¢
Carney lead Poilievre as preferred PM all year?
7
2
¢
2
8
¢
Yes
72¢
No
28¢
$154K
6mo
+0.9%
Spd
4¢
GOP loses House popular vote by 5+?
5
7
¢
4
3
¢
Yes
57¢
No
43¢
$152K
5mo
-24.5%
Spd
4¢
Next Trump-Putin summit?
Not in 2026
5
2
¢
Yes
52¢
No
48¢
By Sept 30, 2026
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Oct Dec 2026
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$140K
6mo
GOP redistricting fight reaches SCOTUS?
6
3
¢
3
7
¢
Yes
63¢
No
37¢
$151K
4mo
-25.0%
Spd
4¢
A UK cabinet minister exits by Sept?
6
7
¢
3
3
¢
Yes
67¢
No
33¢
$149K
3mo
-1.9%
Spd
4¢
UK general election in 2026?
1
7
¢
8
3
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
$149K
6mo
-42.6%
Spd
4¢
Top Canadian concern at end of 2026?
Cost of living / inflation
4
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
US trade war / tariffs
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Housing affordability
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Jobs / economy
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Healthcare
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$132K
6mo
UK inflation above 4% in 2026?
5
6
¢
4
4
¢
Yes
56¢
No
44¢
$146K
6mo
+34.2%
Spd
4¢
Brent crude 2026 peak?
Us$95-105
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
Us$105-120
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Under US$95
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Above US$120
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$131K
6mo
Alberta separation referendum bill pass in 2026?
2
0
¢
8
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$144K
6mo
+7.1%
Spd
4¢
UK backs a Strait of Hormuz mission?
4
7
¢
5
3
¢
Yes
47¢
No
53¢
$145K
3mo
-23.0%
Spd
4¢
Russia-Ukraine major POW swap by Sept?
6
0
¢
4
0
¢
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$145K
3mo
+4.3%
Spd
4¢
