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Canadian Politics
Volume
$577.9K
Traders
1,444
Closes
6mo
New Canada-US CUSMA/trade deal in 2026?
Yes
4
8
¢
No
5
2
¢
All-time Price History
YES
-16.3%
Trade
Poilievre Conservative leader on Jan 1, 2027?
Federal voting-intention leader at end of 2026?
New Canada-US CUSMA/trade deal in 2026?
4
8
¢
5
2
¢
Yes
48¢
No
52¢
$578K
6mo
+18.0%
Spd
4¢
Federal voting-intention leader at end of 2026?
Liberal Party
6
2
¢
Yes
62¢
No
38¢
Conservative Party
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
Ndp
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Bloc Quebecois
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Other
1
¢
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$425K
6mo
Poilievre Conservative leader on Jan 1, 2027?
8
4
¢
1
6
¢
Yes
84¢
No
16¢
$343K
6mo
-15.6%
Spd
4¢
Carney survives a 2026 confidence vote?
8
3
¢
1
7
¢
Yes
83¢
No
17¢
$300K
6mo
-6.0%
Spd
4¢
Carney still PM at end of 2026?
8
5
¢
1
5
¢
Yes
85¢
No
15¢
$267K
6mo
+17.1%
Spd
4¢
Canada hits 2% of GDP on NATO defence in 2026?
5
4
¢
4
6
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$267K
6mo
+5.1%
Spd
4¢
Next Conservative leader if Poilievre exits?
Poilievre stays (None)
7
0
¢
Yes
70¢
No
30¢
Someone else
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Melissa Lantsman
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Andrew Scheer
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
Tim Hodgson
4
¢
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
$168K
11mo
Liberals keep a working majority through 2026?
6
6
¢
3
4
¢
Yes
66¢
No
34¢
$160K
6mo
+13.7%
Spd
4¢
Carney lead Poilievre as preferred PM all year?
7
2
¢
2
8
¢
Yes
72¢
No
28¢
$154K
6mo
+5.1%
Spd
4¢
Top Canadian concern at end of 2026?
Cost of living / inflation
4
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
US trade war / tariffs
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Housing affordability
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Jobs / economy
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Healthcare
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$132K
6mo
Alberta separation referendum bill pass in 2026?
2
0
¢
8
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
$144K
6mo
+7.0%
Spd
4¢
Interprovincial free-trade deal in 2026?
6
0
¢
4
0
¢
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$104K
6mo
-29.1%
Carney govt passes a 2026 budget?
8
5
¢
1
5
¢
Yes
85¢
No
15¢
$96K
6mo
+8.7%
Federal election in Canada before 2027?
9
¢
9
1
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$92K
6mo
-2.0%
NDP national support at end of 2026?
Below 7%
4
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
7% To 9.9%
3
6
¢
Yes
36¢
No
64¢
10% To 12.9%
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
13% Or Higher
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$74K
6mo
When is Carney's next cabinet shuffle?
Before Oct 2026
4
2
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
Oct Dec 2026
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Not in 2026
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
$78K
6mo
Next federal byelection winner in Canada?
Liberal Party
4
7
¢
Yes
47¢
No
53¢
Conservative Party
4
2
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
Bloc Quebecois
6
¢
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
Ndp
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Other
2
¢
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
$56K
4mo
