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UK Politics
Volume
$679.8K
Traders
962
Closes
19mo
Who wins the next UK general election?
Reform UK
44¢
Labour
27¢
Conservatives
16¢
Hung parliament / other
8¢
Liberal Democrats
5¢
All-time Price History
Liberal Democrats
+32.4%
Reform UK
+19.9%
Conservatives
-24.3%
Hung parliament / other
-20.1%
Labour
-10.3%
Trade
Starmer UK PM on Aug 31, 2026?
How many BoE rate cuts by end of 2026?
Who wins the next UK general election?
Reform UK
4
4
¢
Yes
44¢
No
56¢
Labour
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
Conservatives
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Hung parliament / other
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Liberal Democrats
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
$680K
19mo
How many BoE rate cuts by end of 2026?
One cut
3
6
¢
Yes
36¢
No
64¢
No cuts
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
Two cuts
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Three or more
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$477K
6mo
Starmer UK PM on Aug 31, 2026?
4
2
¢
5
8
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
$451K
2mo
+5.3%
Spd
4¢
UK PM at the end of 2026?
Keir Starmer
4
2
¢
Yes
42¢
No
58¢
Andy Burnham
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Another Labour figure
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Wes Streeting
1
3
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Someone outside Labour
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$230K
6mo
Scotland sets an independence vote date?
1
1
¢
8
9
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$185K
6mo
+0.8%
Spd
4¢
A UK cabinet minister exits by Sept?
6
7
¢
3
3
¢
Yes
67¢
No
33¢
$150K
3mo
-0.7%
Spd
4¢
UK general election in 2026?
1
7
¢
8
3
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
$149K
6mo
-42.1%
Spd
4¢
UK inflation above 4% in 2026?
5
6
¢
4
4
¢
Yes
56¢
No
44¢
$146K
6mo
+40.0%
Spd
4¢
UK backs a Strait of Hormuz mission?
4
7
¢
5
3
¢
Yes
47¢
No
53¢
$145K
3mo
-27.2%
Spd
4¢
Labour-Reform UK trade poll lead by Aug?
2
3
¢
7
7
¢
Yes
23¢
No
77¢
$139K
2mo
+2.9%
Spd
4¢
UK loses its AA credit rating in 2026?
2
4
¢
7
6
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
$97K
6mo
-4.0%
When does Starmer stop leading Labour?
By end of summer 2026
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Later in 2026
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
2028 Or Later
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
In 2027
1
9
¢
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
$68K
6mo
Reform UK polls above 30% in 2026?
6
6
¢
3
4
¢
Yes
66¢
No
34¢
$52K
6mo
-26.5%
Farage the next UK Prime Minister?
3
2
¢
6
8
¢
Yes
32¢
No
68¢
$53K
19mo
-4.4%
