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Middle East
Volume
$517.8K
Traders
1,968
Closes
2mo
US-Iran ceasefire holding on Sept 1?
Yes
3
9
¢
No
6
1
¢
All-time Price History
YES
+10.2%
Trade
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Aug 31?
Gaza ceasefire Phase 2 done by Oct 1?
US-Iran ceasefire holding on Sept 1?
3
9
¢
6
1
¢
Yes
39¢
No
61¢
$518K
2mo
-26.1%
Spd
4¢
Gaza ceasefire Phase 2 done by Oct 1?
2
8
¢
7
2
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
$497K
3mo
+5.5%
Spd
4¢
Strait of Hormuz reopened by Aug 31?
4
0
¢
6
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
$480K
2mo
+0.2%
Spd
4¢
What ends the Hormuz crisis first?
Negotiated Us Iran Deal
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
Still Closed At Year End
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
International naval escort regime
1
9
¢
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
Unilateral Iranian reopening
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
$381K
4mo
Saudi Arabia normalizes with Israel in 2026?
1
6
¢
8
4
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
$247K
6mo
+22.9%
Spd
4¢
When does an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire start?
Before Aug 1, 2026
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
Not in 2026
2
7
¢
Yes
27¢
No
73¢
Aug Sept 2026
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Oct Dec 2026
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$166K
6mo
When do US and Iran sign a deal?
No deal in sight
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Sept Dec 2026
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
In 2027
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
By Aug 31, 2026
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$156K
6mo
Gaza ceasefire in effect on Sept 1?
5
9
¢
4
1
¢
Yes
59¢
No
41¢
$145K
2mo
+1.0%
Spd
4¢
Suez Canal traffic back to 2024 by year-end?
4
0
¢
6
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
$118K
6mo
+16.4%
Spd
4¢
OPEC+ announces a production hike by Sept 1?
6
0
¢
4
0
¢
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$109K
2mo
+9.7%
Iran resumes US talks by Aug 1?
4
9
¢
5
1
¢
Yes
49¢
No
51¢
$99K
1mo
-7.7%
Gulf state hosting the next US-Iran round?
Oman
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
Qatar
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Other / none in 2026
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
Switzerland (Geneva)
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
United Arab Emirates
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$81K
3mo
Brent crude level on Dec 31, 2026?
$90 To $109
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
$70 To $89
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$110 Or Higher
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Below $70
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
$68K
6mo
UN passes a new Iran resolution in 2026?
3
3
¢
6
7
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
$61K
6mo
+0.7%
Brent crude above $90 on Sept 30?
6
1
¢
3
9
¢
Yes
61¢
No
39¢
$60K
3mo
+14.7%
Brent crude hits $120 before Sept 1?
2
2
¢
7
8
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$53K
2mo
+2.7%
Who chairs Gaza's transition by year-end?
International Board of Peace
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Palestinian technocratic committee
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Hamas retains control
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
Palestinian Authority
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
No functioning authority
1
1
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$28K
6mo
