Fed holds interest rates at its July 2026 meeting?

Market trust

48 trustLOWProviderManual ReviewEvidenceNot Ready

Manual source - last checked Not checked yet

Trust score: 48/100
Source type: Manual
Provider health: Manual Review
Criteria quality: Fail
Market data quality: Review
Public evidence state: Not Ready
Chart data provenance: Drazill Market Data
Price history freshness: Fresh
Last source check: Not checked yet

Known caveats

- Resolution criteria include warnings or blocking lint findings.

Trust methodology

Formula: market-trust-v1.0

Window: Latest market, criteria, provider, and evidence records

Confidence: MEDIUM

Informational only, not trading advice.

- Provider health is market-specific when resolution checks exist and otherwise inferred from configuration.
- Manual-only markets rely on admin review rather than automated source polling.

New creator with 3 approved markets

About This Market

The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for four consecutive meetings in 2026. The next decision comes at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, announced July 29.

Criteria

Resolves YES if the FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting. Resolves NO if the range is changed (cut or hike).

Source

Federal Reserve FOMC statement (federalreserve.gov)

Market open

Jul 11, 2026, 09:46 a.m.

Market closes

Jul 29, 2026, 02:00 p.m.

Projected payout

After market closes

Resolution contract

Fail48h dispute

Version 1 machine-checkable criteria

Source: Manual
Template: Binary
Validation: Fail
Lint status: Fail
Dispute window: 48 hours
Observation time: Jul 29, 2026, 03:00 p.m.
Event ID: Manual source
Endpoint: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (federalreserve.gov)
Contract ID: 6e6d3c3e-5a8a-4876-b128-8a5c5d4d8753
Created: Jul 11, 2026, 09:46 a.m.

Resolves YES if the FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting. Resolves NO if the range is changed (cut or hike).

1 criteria note

Error - MISSING_TIMEZONE: Observation time must include an explicit timezone.

Outcome mapping

5e0c6a0c 3f37-40c6-8a57-9d91c95a3a10

Name: No

Faa70a6c E2a9-4dd5 A678-61d869b169d5

Name: Yes

Edge case rules

Tie: Manual Review
No Data: Fallback Then Manual Review
Cancellation: Manual Review

Fallback source

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (federalreserve.gov)
Required If: Primary Provider Unavailable
Manual Review After Failure: Yes

Manual review rules

Required When: Provider Unavailable
Criteria Validation Not Pass
Low Confidence Outcome Mapping

Resolution evidence

1 event

Public source packet, resolver trail, and dispute timing

Criteria defined
Jul 11, 2026, 09:46 a.m.
Resolution criteria were captured for this market.

Related Markets

About This Market

The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for four consecutive meetings in 2026. The next decision comes at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, announced July 29.

Criteria

Resolves YES if the FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting. Resolves NO if the range is changed (cut or hike).

Source

Federal Reserve FOMC statement (federalreserve.gov)