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US Politics
Volume
$637.2K
Traders
1,733
Closes
2mo
Government shutdown before October?
Yes
6
5
¢
No
3
5
¢
All-time Price History
YES
-36.9%
Trade
Canada avoids a 2026 recession (BoC)?
Top risk to the US economy in H2 2026?
Government shutdown before October?
6
5
¢
3
5
¢
Yes
65¢
No
35¢
$637K
2mo
-19.4%
Spd
4¢
Top risk to the US economy in H2 2026?
Energy / oil prices
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Inflation
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Tariffs / trade war
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Labor market weakness
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Other
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$616K
3mo
Canada avoids a 2026 recession (BoC)?
5
3
¢
4
7
¢
Yes
53¢
No
47¢
$613K
6mo
-3.2%
Spd
4¢
When does the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
July to September 2026
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
October to December 2026
2
9
¢
Yes
29¢
No
71¢
Not in 2026
2
3
¢
Yes
23¢
No
77¢
By end of June 2026
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
$607K
6mo
2026 F1 Drivers' champion?
Kimi Antonelli
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Max Verstappen
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
Oscar Piastri
1
9
¢
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
Someone else
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
Lando Norris
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Charles Leclerc
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$572K
4mo
Swift-Kelce wedding venue?
Madison Square Garden
4
0
¢
Yes
40¢
No
60¢
Rhode Island estate
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Nashville Area Venue
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Other US venue
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Outside the US
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$559K
1mo
US inflation above 4% at any 2026 print?
7
1
¢
2
9
¢
Yes
71¢
No
29¢
$549K
6mo
+8.7%
Spd
4¢
TikTok USDS launches a US IPO in 2026?
4
6
¢
5
4
¢
Yes
46¢
No
54¢
$548K
5mo
-9.1%
Spd
2¢
2026 song of the summer artist?
Someone else
2
9
¢
Yes
29¢
No
71¢
Sabrina Carpenter
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
Bad Bunny
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Ariana Grande
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Drake
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Olivia Rodrigo
1
1
¢
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$532K
3mo
US-Iran ceasefire holding on Sept 1?
3
9
¢
6
1
¢
Yes
39¢
No
61¢
$518K
2mo
-22.7%
Spd
4¢
Top tech for VC funding in H2 2026?
AI infrastructure & models
6
5
¢
Yes
65¢
No
35¢
Something else
1
3
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Defense / Dual Use Tech
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
Biotech & health tech
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Robotics & autonomy
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Energy & nuclear / fusion
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
$505K
6mo
Karen Bass wins re-election as LA mayor?
5
1
¢
4
9
¢
Yes
51¢
No
49¢
$477K
4mo
+37.8%
Spd
4¢
How many BoE rate cuts by end of 2026?
One cut
3
6
¢
Yes
36¢
No
64¢
No cuts
3
4
¢
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
Two cuts
2
1
¢
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Three or more
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$477K
6mo
How many named Atlantic storms in 2026?
8 To 11
4
1
¢
Yes
41¢
No
59¢
12 To 14
2
5
¢
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
7 Or Fewer
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
15 Or More
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$473K
5mo
A LatAm country signs a US trade deal in 2026?
6
9
¢
3
1
¢
Yes
69¢
No
31¢
$469K
6mo
-1.0%
Spd
4¢
Top US streaming platform by watch time?
YouTube
3
7
¢
Yes
37¢
No
63¢
Netflix
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Disney+ / Hulu
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Amazon Prime Video
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
Other
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$454K
6mo
Global oil supply disrupted through July?
6
1
¢
3
9
¢
Yes
61¢
No
39¢
$444K
1mo
+9.3%
Spd
4¢
Pudgy Penguins floor above 12 ETH by Aug 31?
4
4
¢
5
6
¢
Yes
44¢
No
56¢
$427K
2mo
-4.1%
Spd
4¢
Top altcoin by market cap on Sept 30?
Xrp
8
3
¢
Yes
83¢
No
17¢
Dogecoin (DOGE)
8
¢
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Bnb
4
¢
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
Solana (SOL)
3
¢
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Other
2
¢
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
$403K
2mo
Xavier Becerra elected California governor?
7
0
¢
3
0
¢
Yes
70¢
No
30¢
$386K
4mo
+23.7%
Spd
4¢
Most-watched streaming series of 2026?
House of the Dragon (S3)
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Wednesday (S2)
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Other
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
The Bear (final season)
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Avatar: The Last Airbender (S2)
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Squid Game catalog
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$374K
6mo
Fusion net energy gain in a tokamak in 2026?
1
0
¢
9
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$372K
6mo
-14.2%
Spd
4¢
2026 Constructors' champion?
McLaren
4
1
¢
Yes
41¢
No
59¢
Mercedes
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
Red Bull
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Ferrari
9
¢
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
Other
5
¢
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
$328K
5mo
Who wins Michigan's 2026 Senate seat?
Democratic nominee
5
4
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
Republican nominee
4
5
¢
Yes
45¢
No
55¢
Other / independent
1
¢
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$328K
5mo
Carney survives a 2026 confidence vote?
8
3
¢
1
7
¢
Yes
83¢
No
17¢
$300K
6mo
+0.9%
Spd
4¢
GTA VI to release in 2026?
4
4
¢
5
6
¢
Yes
44¢
No
56¢
$295K
6mo
-5.1%
Spd
4¢
Which big 2026 album debuts at No. 1 first?
Bts
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Ariana Grande
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Bad Bunny
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Madonna
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Someone else
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Bruno Mars
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$286K
3mo
Carney still PM at end of 2026?
8
5
¢
1
5
¢
Yes
85¢
No
15¢
$268K
6mo
+7.8%
Spd
4¢
Canada hits 2% of GDP on NATO defence in 2026?
5
4
¢
4
6
¢
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$268K
6mo
+6.2%
Spd
4¢
Saudi Arabia normalizes with Israel in 2026?
1
6
¢
8
4
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
$247K
6mo
+15.0%
Spd
4¢
DRC and M23 sign a peace deal by year-end?
3
0
¢
7
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$242K
6mo
+29.8%
Spd
4¢
NFT market cap above $8B on Dec 31?
4
1
¢
5
9
¢
Yes
41¢
No
59¢
$240K
6mo
+28.8%
Spd
4¢
First woman UN Secretary-General?
4
6
¢
5
4
¢
Yes
46¢
No
54¢
$230K
6mo
-14.8%
Spd
4¢
Game Awards 2026 GOTY winner?
Hollow Knight: Silksong
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Ghost of Yotei
1
6
¢
Yes
16¢
No
84¢
Grand Theft Auto VI
1
3
¢
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Other title
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
Donkey Kong Bananza
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$220K
6mo
FDA approves a new CRISPR therapy in 2026?
3
1
¢
6
9
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
$219K
6mo
+1.9%
Spd
4¢
US tech layoffs top 100,000 in 2026?
5
7
¢
4
3
¢
Yes
57¢
No
43¢
$210K
6mo
-3.4%
Spd
4¢
US Q2 2026 real GDP growth?
0% To 1.5%
3
8
¢
Yes
38¢
No
62¢
Below 0%
3
1
¢
Yes
31¢
No
69¢
1.5% To 3%
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
Above 3%
7
¢
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$181K
1mo
Senate passes Iran war authorization in 2026?
3
0
¢
7
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$150K
6mo
+7.2%
Spd
4¢
Canada in a technical recession by Q3 2026?
3
2
¢
6
8
¢
Yes
32¢
No
68¢
$149K
5mo
-11.8%
Spd
4¢
Biggest climate-policy storyline of late 2026?
COP31 finance fight
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
Fossil Fuel Phase Out Language
2
4
¢
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
US climate rollbacks
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Carbon Credit Rules
1
4
¢
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Other
1
0
¢
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
$146K
5mo
Nvidia reclaims a $4T market cap by year-end?
4
9
¢
5
1
¢
Yes
49¢
No
51¢
$141K
6mo
+4.9%
Spd
4¢
Democrats win the House in 2026?
6
3
¢
3
7
¢
Yes
63¢
No
37¢
$140K
5mo
+0.7%
Spd
4¢
A crewed Moon landing before 2028?
3
2
¢
6
8
¢
Yes
32¢
No
68¢
$116K
19mo
+15.0%
Spd
4¢
Canelo beats Mbilli in September?
6
6
¢
3
4
¢
Yes
66¢
No
34¢
$100K
3mo
-16.8%
Spd
4¢
US keeps Canada steel tariffs all year?
5
9
¢
4
1
¢
Yes
59¢
No
41¢
$94K
6mo
+17.4%
Spd
4¢
When does the CLARITY Act become law?
July Sept 2026
2
5
¢
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
By July 4, 2026
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Not enacted by end of 2027
2
0
¢
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
Oct Dec 2026
1
8
¢
Yes
18¢
No
82¢
In 2027
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
$82K
7mo
Top science breakthrough of 2026?
Gene editing / medicine
3
0
¢
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
AI for science
2
6
¢
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
Physics / quantum
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
Space / astronomy
1
5
¢
Yes
15¢
No
85¢
Another field
1
2
¢
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$70K
6mo
How strong does the 2026-27 El Nino get?
Moderate (1.0-1.4)
3
3
¢
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Strong (1.5-1.9)
2
8
¢
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Weak (0.5-0.9)
2
2
¢
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Very strong / super (2.0+)
1
7
¢
Yes
17¢
No
83¢
$61K
8mo
