Demo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyDemo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyDemo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyA volume-weighted mean of the crowd's implied probability across active Drazill politics/election markets — a barometer of electoral conviction. Higher values indicate stronger crowd conviction in the favoured outcome. This IS the platform's election index; no separate definition exists.
Methodology idx-v1 · 47 constituents
Each belief index is a volume-capped weighted mean of its constituent markets’ implied probabilities. Capping each market’s weight prevents any single thin market from dominating the index.
Honest gaps. When a value cannot be computed for a period (for example, no constituent traded), the series records a gap rather than carrying the last value forward — the chart line breaks there instead of interpolating across it.
Versioned restatements. The methodology version (idx-v1) is stamped on every point. If the methodology changes, historical values are restated under a new version rather than silently rewritten.
Full methodology: docs/ml/index-methodology.md.