28%chance
Predicts senior turnover in the administration. Resolves YES if any Senate-confirmed cabinet secretary departs (resigns, is fired, or is replaced) before January 1, 2027. Source: AP / official White House announcements.
This probability seems too optimistic to me.
Anyone else think this is overvalued right now?
Sold my position. Taking profits while I can.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.
Looking at the data, this could go either way.
This is looking bullish! The momentum is definitely there.
Just took some profits. Still holding a core position.
Market hasn't caught up to the latest developments yet.